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由于09年上半年,尤其是一季度,投资者仍将面对陆续出台的各种利好政策,同时经济数据表现将更加悲观。因此我们认为,09年上半年,尤其是09年一季度市场将维持震荡。但由于美国信贷市场状况已经明显好转,同时,国内投资者信心也在开始趋于稳定,08年单边大幅下跌的情况出现的概率较低。
As the first half of 2009, especially in the first quarter, investors will still face a series of favorable policies that have been promulgated one after another, meanwhile the economic data will be more pessimistic. Therefore, we think the market will remain volatile in the first half of 2009, especially in the first quarter of 2009. However, as the credit market in the United States has seen a marked improvement and the confidence of domestic investors is also beginning to stabilize, the probability of a sharp drop in unilateralism in 2008 will be lower.