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目的了解某大型厂矿职业暴露女性恶性肿瘤发病情况并预测该人群乳腺癌发病趋势。方法资料来源于某大型厂矿2001—2010年职业女性病案登记档案,共纳入158 380例女性,分析其乳腺癌、卵巢癌、子宫颈癌、子宫内膜癌的时间分布、年龄分布及部门分布等;采用GM(1,1)灰色模型预测该人群乳腺癌发病趋势。结果该人群中共发现乳腺癌90例、卵巢癌25例、子宫颈癌13例、子宫内膜癌14例,总发病率分别为568.25/10万、154.14/10万、85.51/10万、8.93/10万;卵巢癌发病率呈下降趋势(P=0.011),子宫颈癌发病率呈增长趋势(P=0.018),而乳腺癌(P=0.114)和子宫内膜癌(P=0.710)发病率变化不明显。该人群中35岁以上女性共有122 182例,不同年龄女性乳腺癌、卵巢癌、子宫颈癌发病率比较,差异均无统计学意义(P>0.05);子宫内膜癌发病率比较,差异有统计学意义(P=0.006)。该人群中在采矿、冶炼、服务部门工作女性共有62 347例,不同工作部门女性乳腺癌、卵巢癌、子宫颈癌、子宫内膜癌发病率比较,差异均无统计学意义(P>0.05)。GM(1,1)模型预测结果显示,该人群女性乳腺癌2011—2013年发病例数分别为14、15、16例,呈增长趋势。结论该大型厂矿职业暴露女性恶性肿瘤发病率较高,存在健康威胁;预测该人群乳腺癌发病呈增长趋势,应采取综合性预防措施以降低恶性肿瘤发病率。
Objective To understand the incidence of occupationally exposed female malignant tumors in a large factory and predict the trend of breast cancer in this population. Methods The data were collected from the records of occupational women’s medical records in a large-scale factory and mines from 2001 to 2010. A total of 158 380 women were enrolled in this study to analyze the time distribution, age distribution and sectoral distribution of breast cancer, ovarian cancer, cervical cancer and endometrial cancer The GM (1,1) gray model was used to predict the incidence of breast cancer in this population. Results A total of 90 cases of breast cancer, 25 cases of ovarian cancer, 13 cases of cervical cancer and 14 cases of endometrial cancer were found in this population. The overall incidence rates were 568.25 / 100000, 154.14 / 100000, 85.51 / 100000, 8.93 / The incidence of ovarian cancer showed a decreasing trend (P = 0.011), the incidence of cervical cancer showed an increasing trend (P = 0.018), while the incidence of breast cancer (P = 0.114) and endometrial cancer Change is not obvious. The population of women over the age of 35, a total of 122 182 cases of women of different ages, the incidence of breast cancer, ovarian cancer, cervical cancer, the difference was not statistically significant (P> 0.05); the incidence of endometrial cancer, the difference was Statistical significance (P = 0.006). There were 62 347 women working in the mining, metallurgy and service sectors in this population. There was no significant difference in the incidence of breast cancer, ovarian cancer, cervical cancer and endometrial cancer between different working groups (P> 0.05) . The GM (1,1) model predicts that the incidence of female breast cancer in 2011-2013 is 14, 15 and 16 cases, respectively, showing an increasing trend. Conclusion The incidence of malignant tumors in occupationally exposed female workers in this large-scale factory and mines is very high, which poses a health threat. The incidence of breast cancer is expected to increase in this large-scale factory. Comprehensive preventive measures should be taken to reduce the incidence of malignant tumors.