论文部分内容阅读
针对静态双寡头推测变差模型中对参与人行为的限制,考虑如何将非线性动力系统理论和混沌理论等结合起来更好地描述寡头垄断市场。本文构建参与人分别具有不同行为规则的动态市场份额推测变差模型,研究动态市场份额推测变差模型的复杂性。通过模型求解和数值仿真分析得出结论:参与人在不完全信息和不完全理性情况下,市场份额推测变差系数和其它参数的取值范围决定了动态系统的稳定性、产量分岔、利润分岔、混沌等;如果参数取值在一定范围内,静态市场份额推测变差均衡能够作为稳定的动态均衡实现;否则,市场份额推测变差均衡不稳定,经济系统可能会出现周期变化或混沌的现象。
In view of the restrictions on participant behavior in the static duopoly speculation variation model and considering how to combine the theory of nonlinear dynamical system and chaos theory to describe the oligopolistic market better. In this paper, we build a speculative variation model of dynamic market share with different rules of behavior, and study the complexity of the speculative variation model of dynamic market share. Through the model and numerical simulation, the conclusion is drawn that under the condition of incomplete information and incomplete rationality, the quotient of coefficient of variation of market share and the range of other parameters determine the stability of dynamic system, yield bifurcation, profit Bifurcation, chaos, etc .; if the parameter values are within a certain range, the static market share forecasting variance equilibrium can be achieved as a stable dynamic equilibrium; otherwise, the equilibrium of the market share forecasting is not stable and the economic system may experience periodic changes or chaos The phenomenon.