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为改善海底管道周期性维修策略的技术经济效果,运用Markov理论,建立管道腐蚀损伤发展过程的预测方法,确立综合可靠性与维修成本为维修策略的评价指标。选取腐蚀深度作为判断腐蚀损伤严重程度的指标,并将其划分为有限、离散的状态区间。预测管道在维修策略及腐蚀作用下未来各时期将处于不同状态区间的概率,以此测算判断管道可靠性的变化。在此基础上加入采取不同单项策略的维修成本信息,便能预测不同策略组合影响下总的维修成本期望。以某海底管道为例,制定维修策略。结果表明:在制定维修策略时,需考虑维修的技术效果及成本,这样有助于提高管道维修质量。
In order to improve the technical and economic effects of the periodic maintenance strategy for submarine pipelines, Markov theory was used to establish the prediction method for the development process of pipeline corrosion damage. The comprehensive reliability and maintenance cost were established as the evaluation indexes of maintenance strategy. Select the corrosion depth as an indicator to judge the severity of corrosion damage, and divide it into finite and discrete state intervals. Predict the probability of pipelines being in different state intervals in future periods under the repair strategy and corrosion effects, so as to estimate the change of pipeline reliability. Based on this, adding maintenance cost information with different single strategies can predict the total maintenance cost expectation under the influence of different strategy combinations. Taking a submarine pipeline as an example, make a maintenance strategy. The results show that the technical effect and cost of maintenance should be considered when formulating maintenance strategy, which will help to improve the quality of pipeline maintenance.