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通过对影响汽车市场相关因素的分析,采用组合预测法,建立了“八五”后期微型车需求模型,定量预测出国内微型车需求量,1994年为26.56～29.44万辆,1995年达到36.36～38.96万辆,也对“九五”期间我国汽车市场宏观走向进行了分析,并指出了微型厂家如何提高整车产品水平,达到90年代国际先进水平的途径。同时,探讨了自行开发1～1.5升级小排量轿车,是微型车转型换代的方向。
Through the analysis of the related factors affecting the automobile market, the combined forecasting method was used to establish the demand model for mini vehicles in the late period of the Eighth Five-year Plan. The demand of domestic mini vehicles was predicted quantitatively from 26.56 to 29.44 in 1994 and from 36.36 ~ 389,600 vehicles. It also analyzed the macro-direction of China’s automobile market during the Ninth Five-year Plan and pointed out ways for the micro-manufacturers to improve their vehicle product standards and reach the international advanced level in the 1990s. At the same time, it explores the self-developed 1 ~ 1.5 upgrade small-displacement sedan, which is the direction of mini-car transformation and replacement.