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开展未来气候情景下海河流域参考蒸发蒸腾量的预估研究,揭示流域未来气候变化背景下的水文响应规律,有助于更好地为水资源分配和管理提供科学基础和理论依据.根据海河流域及其周边共40个气象站1961—2010年逐日气象资料,基于FAO Penman-Monteith法计算参考蒸发蒸腾量(RET),通过统计降尺度模型(SDSM)实现HadCM3输出RET数据网格到站点的尺度降解,进而生成未来情景下RET并分析其时空变化规律.结果表明,基于SDSM模型的模拟效果较好,可以用于未来情景下海河流域GCM输出RET的降尺度应用;虽然过去50年流域大部分站点的RET年值呈下降趋势,但SDSM模型预测的未来气候情景下大部分区域却呈增加的趋势,其中H3A2情景下增加量略高于H3B2情景,且随着时间的推移增加量越来越大,以流域西北部边缘区域、滦河上游和下游以及徒骇马颊河流域的增加趋势最为明显,RET减少的区域在2020s时期主要位于流域中部,随着时间的推移逐渐缩小到京津塘地区;RET季节值的变化同样具有很强的时空特性,而除了春季时在流域南部、秋季在2020s时期滦河流域下游和海河北系的东部部分区域、冬季在流域的西南部和东北部RET呈减小趋势外,其余RET则主要呈增加的趋势;同时研究表明未来情景下RET增加主要由温度的上升导致.
In the future, the prediction of reference evapotranspiration in the Haihe River Basin under the climatic scenarios will reveal the hydrological response law in the future climate change of the river basin and help to provide a scientific basis and theoretical basis for the allocation and management of water resources better.According to the Haihe River Basin And the surrounding areas by a total of 40 meteorological stations from 1961 to 2010, based on the FAO Penman-Monteith method to calculate the reference evapotranspiration (RET) and HadCM3 output RET data grid to the site by the statistical downscaling model (SDSM) The results show that the simulation based on SDSM model is better and can be used for the downscaling of RET of GCM output in the Haihe River Basin in future scenarios. Although most of the watersheds in the past 50 years The annual RET value of the site shows a downward trend, but most of the future climate scenarios predicted by the SDSM model show an increasing trend. The increase in the H3A2 scenario is slightly higher than that of the H3B2 scenario, and the increasing amount increases with the passage of time Large, to the northwestern marginal region of the basin, the Luanhe River upstream and downstream, as well as apprentice Mache river basin trend of the most obvious increase, RET reduction in the area of During the 2020s, it was mainly located in the central part of the basin, and gradually narrowed down to the Jingjintang area with the passage of time. The changes of RET seasons also had strong spatio-temporal characteristics. In addition to the spring in the south of the basin and the autumn in the downstream of the Luanhe River Basin in 2020s In the eastern part of the Haihe River system, the RET trends show a decreasing trend in the southwestern and northeastern parts of the drainage basin in winter, whereas the RET trends are mainly increasing. In the meantime, studies show that RET increases in the future are mainly caused by the temperature rise.