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利用条件概率评价及系统工程理论,将关键块体作为块体系统一个重要组成部分,分析了关键块体可靠度指标评价办法,探讨了关键块体与次生关键块可靠度内在关系,由此类推,提出块体系统评价方法,推导出块体系统可靠度计算公式,实现对块体系统的失稳概率的评价计算。并选择一工程实例,对评价方法予以验证。结果表明:传统关键块体可靠度评价办法忽略块体间内在影响,结果偏向风险;而文中方法综合考虑块体之间影响,并建立了系统评价模型,对块体系统评价更接近实际情况,对块体系统理论的研究有一定借鉴意义。
Using conditional probability evaluation and system engineering theory, the key block is regarded as an important part of the block system. The evaluation method of the key block reliability index is analyzed, and the inherent relationship between the reliability of the key block and the secondary key block is discussed. By analogy, the paper puts forward the method of block system evaluation, derives the calculation formula of block system reliability, and realizes the evaluation and calculation of the block system’s probability of failure. And choose a project example to verify the evaluation method. The results show that the traditional method of evaluating the reliability of key blocks ignores the inherent influence between blocks and the results tend to be risky. In the method, the influence of blocks is considered synthetically, and the system evaluation model is established. The evaluation of block systems is closer to the actual situation, The block system theory has some reference significance.