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从2007年开始,中国的外部盈余开始下降。同时,投资仍在增长,依赖信贷为这些投资提供资金的情况愈发明显。考虑到当时与投资相关的GDP总量已经极高,向投资推动的增长模式的转型就更加值得关注。与此相关而增加的借贷使中国的信贷占GDP的比重在之后的五年中一路高涨,给金融体系带来了相当的压力。降低这些风险意味着信贷增长速度需要下降到一个可持续的程度上。降低信贷增长不代表经济增长也需要减速,成果转型的关键在于降低经济增长的信贷密度。这要依靠降低投资在经济增长中占据的重要性、改善信贷分配、增强股权融资对企业的吸引力来完成。这些改革可以在不给经济增加相对负债的前提下,让中国的经济增长更具可持续性。
From 2007 onwards, China’s external surpluses began to decline. At the same time, investment is still growing, and the reliance on credit to finance these investments has become more pronounced. Given the already high total amount of investment associated with GDP at the time, the transition to an investment-driven growth model deserves more attention. The increase in borrowing associated with this led to an increase in China’s share of credit in GDP over the next five years, putting considerable pressure on the financial system. Reducing these risks means that the credit growth rate needs to drop to a sustainable level. Decreasing credit growth does not mean that economic growth needs to be slowed down. The key to a successful transition lies in reducing the credit density of economic growth. This should be accomplished by reducing the importance of investment in economic growth, improving credit distribution and enhancing the attractiveness of equity financing to enterprises. These reforms can make China’s economic growth more sustainable without adding relative liabilities to the economy.