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为了评估苹果霜冻灾害特征,确定气候变暖对苹果霜冻灾害的影响机制,现基于绥中33年的苹果发育期数据和气温数据,结合物候模型的方法,分析了绥中苹果霜冻灾害发生特征及其对气候变暖的相应和不同品种的霜冻灾害发生的特点。结果表明:1981—2013年绥中苹果霜冻灾害发生概率为18.18%,春季气温升高可能导致苹果霜冻灾害加剧,通过调整苹果品种,可以较好的避免霜冻危害的发生。
In order to evaluate the characteristics of apple frost disasters and determine the mechanism of climate warming on apple frost disaster, the characteristics of frost disasters in Suizhong were analyzed based on 33 years of apple developmental and temperature data in Suizhong and the phenological model. Its characteristics of the occurrence of frost disasters corresponding to different types of climate warming. The results showed that the incidence of apple frost disasters in Suizhong during 1981-2013 was 18.18%. The rising temperature in spring may lead to the aggravation of apple frost disaster. By adjusting apple varieties, the frost damage can be avoided.