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本文着重研究上市公司盈余过程(fundamental earnings process)如何影响证券分析师的盈余预测行为。盈余过程产生基础盈余(fundamentalearnings),后者是由公司生产经营函数所决定的真实产出,亦是计算公司价值时可以被年金化的收益部分。证券分析师通过各种渠道分析各类信息就是为了能够挖掘出公司潜藏在表象之下的盈余过程。然而真实的盈余过程不可观测。在本文中我们按照盈余过程的性质将其分为现金赚取活动与赊销预付活动,更进一步,又将赊销预付活动分为正常性与操纵性两部分,我们发现:①当期赊销预付活动的比重越高,同期分析师预测误差越大;当期现金赚取活动比重越高同期预测误差越小。②将当期赊销预付活动分解为正常性与操纵性两部分后,只有后者对当期预测误差有影响。③当期赊销预付活动的比重越高,同期跟踪相应公司的分析师人数越少;当期赚取现金活动的比重越高,跟踪的分析师人数越多。④将当期赊销预付活动分解后,操纵性赊销预付活动比重越高,同期跟踪人数越少;正常性赊销预付活动比重越高,跟踪人数越多。但这个影响不及赚取现金活动比重对分析师跟踪人数的影响大。综上,证据表明上市公司的盈余过程确实会影响到分析师的预测行为。
This article focuses on how the earnings earnings of a listed analyst affects the earnings forecast behavior of a listed company. The surplus process produces the fundamentalearnings, which are the real output determined by the firm’s function of production and operation and the part of the proceeds that can be annulated when calculating the value of the firm. Securities analysts through various channels of various types of information is to be able to dig out the company under the image of the earnings process. However, the real earnings process can not be observed. In this paper, we divide it into cash earning activity and credit prepaid activity in accordance with the nature of the surplus process. Furthermore, we divide the credit prepaid activity into two parts: normality and maneuvering. We find: ① the proportion of credit prepaid activity The higher the forecast error of the analyst in the same period is, the higher the current cash earning activity is and the smaller the forecast error is in the same period. ② The current credit prepaid activities broken down into two parts of normality and maneuverability, only the latter have an impact on the forecast error of the current period. (3) The higher the proportion of credit prepaid activities, the fewer the number of analysts who track the corresponding companies in the same period; the higher the proportion of current cash-generating activities, the more analysts follow. ④ The current credit prepaid activities decomposition, the higher the proportion of liquidation prepaid credit activities, the same period the less the number of follow-up; normal credit prepaid activities, the higher the proportion of the more follow-up. But this impact is less than the impact of earning cash activity on analyst tracking. In summary, the evidence shows that the earnings process of listed companies will indeed affect the analyst’s forecasting behavior.