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低的粮食库存、强劲的需求增长、以及化肥和能源价格的上涨,会引起人们对世界粮食价格出现新一轮上涨的担心。近期国际粮食价格急剧上涨。粮食价格从2007年年初以来持续上涨,到4月份上涨了约20%,其中玉米价格增长尤为迅速。通过直接或间接的途径(包括通过牲畜和禽类的饲料),粮食在食品摄入量中占很大的份额。粮食在中国的消费者价格指数(CPI)中的权重大约为11%(若仅计算直接消费的话)。尽管长期来看,粮食的实际价格趋于下降,但是有些时候粮食价格会急剧上涨,例如当粮食库存降至低水平,由于干旱而减产,或者主要的粮食生产国或消费国的政策出现重大变化的时候。
Low food stocks, strong demand growth and rising prices of fertilizers and energy can cause fears of a new round of rally in world food prices. Recent international food prices have risen sharply. Food prices continued to rise since early 2007 and rose by about 20% in April, with maize prices rising especially rapidly. Food accounts for a large share of food intake, either directly or indirectly (including feed through livestock and poultry). The weight of food in China’s consumer price index (CPI) is about 11% (if only direct consumption is calculated). Although real food prices tend to decline in the long run, food prices can rise sharply in some cases, for example, when food stocks fall to low levels, output is reduced due to drought, or major changes occur in the policies of major food-producing or consumer countries when.