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利用青海省安全监督管理局数据库近六年以来矿山事故数据,采用信息扩散理论,从矿山事故概率和矿山事故人员死亡概率两个方面对高海拔、寒、旱地区矿山事故进行风险分析,建立了适合本地区特殊要求的矿山事故分析模型.分析模型、参数和预测结果均与实际情况吻合,说明应用信息扩散对高海拔、寒、旱地区矿山事故进行风险分析,能够预测出该地区矿山企业年均发生事故的概率及矿山事故人员死亡概率.
Based on the data of mine accidents in the database of Qinghai Provincial Bureau of Safety Supervision in the recent six years and using information diffusion theory, this paper analyzes the risk of mine accidents in high altitude, cold and dry areas from the probability of mine accident and the probability of death of mine accident, The analysis model, parameters and forecast results are in good agreement with the actual situation, which shows that the application of information diffusion to risk analysis of mine accidents in high altitude, cold and dry areas can predict the year of mine enterprises in this area The probability of accidents and the probability of death of mine accident personnel.