论文部分内容阅读
科学地分析突发事件的风险,有利于应急管理部门正确制定应对方案,降低事件损失。突发事件风险分析中受到多因素高维数据和小样本数据信息不完备的约束,无法全面识别突发事件的风险。本文从突发事件系统观点出发,以知识元模型、投影寻踪方法和信息扩散理论为基础,提出了基于知识元的突发事件风险分析方法。该方法采用知识元模型描述了突发事件已认知的共性本体特征,通过探寻事件风险等级标准数据的最佳投影方向降低了输入元素观测数据的维数,将输入元素观测样本所包含的风险信息扩散到输出属性的风险指标论域的控制点上,从而确定了突发事件发生的风险概率。实例分析中,根据国家《地表水环境质量标准(GB3838-2002)》划分水污染风险等级,利用某湖泊8个监测点实时检测数据,分析该湖泊突发水污染事件的风险性。研究结果表明基于知识元的突发事件风险分析方法能够根据研究区域突发事件风险等级标准和观测点的样本数据,动态定量的分析和评估突发事件潜在风险,为突发事件的应急管理提供科学依据。本文提出的突发事件风险方法对于已经建立实时监测系统的危险区域分析突发事件的风险性具有一定的借鉴意义。
Scientifically analyzing the risk of emergencies is conducive to the emergency management department to correctly formulate coping schemes to reduce incident losses. Due to the incomplete information of multi-factor high dimension data and small sample data, the risk analysis of emergencies can not fully identify the risk of emergencies. This article from the point of view of emergency system, based on the knowledge element model, projection pursuit method and information diffusion theory, puts forward a knowledge element based emergency risk analysis method. This method uses knowledge metamodel to describe common ontology features of emergent events. By exploring the best projection direction of event risk level standard data, the method reduces the dimensionality of input data, Information is diffused to the control point of the domain of the risk index of the output attribute, so as to determine the probability of the risk of the emergency occurring. In the case study, according to the national “Surface Water Environmental Quality Standard (GB3838-2002)”, the risk level of water pollution was divided into four levels and the real-time detection data of eight monitoring points in a lake were used to analyze the risk of sudden water pollution incidents in the lake. The research results show that the method of risk analysis based on knowledge element can analyze and assess the potential risks of emergencies dynamically and quantitatively according to the risk level of emergencies and sample data of observation points in the research area and provide emergency management for emergencies Scientific basis. The emergency risk method proposed in this paper is of some reference to the analysis of the risk of emergencies in the dangerous area where the real-time monitoring system has been established.