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目的为了对安康市手足口病发病情况进行预测,优化拟合最佳传染病发病预测模型。方法采用2009—2014年手足口病的年发病率和月发病率分别建立灰色模型(1,1)和求和自回归滑动平均模型(ARIMA模型),并对两种模型发病预测结果进行比较、评价,优化拟合最佳预测模型,同时进行2015年安康市手足口病发病预测,并验证预测模型的准确度。结果 ARIMA模型对安康市手足口病预测效果优于灰色模型,2015年手足口病年发病率预测值为143.29/10万,每年发病分布存在两个发病高峰,分别在4—7月和11—12月。与2015年1—7月的实际发病率比较,ARIMA模型的发病率预测值略低,但无统计学差异(P>0.05)。结论采用ARIMA模型对手足口病发病预测效果优于GM(1,1)模型。
Objective To predict the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease in Ankang City, and to optimize the prediction model of the best infectious disease incidence. Methods The gray model (1,1) and the autoregressive moving average model (ARIMA model) were established respectively according to the annual morbidity and monthly morbidity of HFMD in 2009-2014. The prediction results of the two models were compared. Evaluate and optimize the best prediction model, and predict the incidence of HFMD in 2015 in Ankang City, and verify the accuracy of the prediction model. Results Prediction of HFMD in Ankang City was superior to that in gray model. The annual incidence of HFMD in 2015 was 143.29 / 100 000. There were two peaks of incidence in each year, which were respectively in April-July and 11- December. Compared with the actual incidence in January-July 2015, the predictive value of ARIMA was slightly lower but not statistically significant (P> 0.05). Conclusion ARIMA model is superior to GM (1,1) model in predicting hand-foot-mouth disease.