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利润操纵识别是企业各方利益相关者十分关注的一个问题。本文在考虑识别指标所含信息准确性和完备性的基础上,引入股权结构指标优化指标体系。同时由于现有模型将利润操纵行为人为地划分为{0,1},而利润操纵是盈余管理超过了一定范围的连续行为,本文运用层次聚类将利润操纵分为严重、轻微两种类型,对企业利润操纵行为的描述更加符合实际。最后,对层次聚类后的两组上市公司配对样本,运用Logistic模型分别进行识别分析,模型的识别率分别达到82.6%和90%,有效改善了传统识别模型。
Profit manipulation identification is a matter of great concern to all stakeholders in the enterprise. Based on the accuracy and completeness of the information contained in the index, this paper introduces the index system of index optimization of the equity structure. At the same time, because the existing model divides the profit manipulation into {0, 1} and the profit manipulation is the continuous behavior that the earnings management exceeds a certain range, the paper divides the profit manipulation into two types, serious and slight, The description of corporate profit manipulation is more realistic. Finally, the paired samples of two listed companies after hierarchical clustering are respectively identified and analyzed using Logistic model, the recognition rate of the model is 82.6% and 90% respectively, effectively improving the traditional recognition model.