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目的探讨指数平滑模型在麻疹发病预测方面中应用。方法通过国家疾病报告管理系统收集医疗机构2004~2012年麻疹月发病数资料。用Eviews6.0软件建立流感和麻疹月发病数的指数平滑预测模型。结果通过模型诊断器建议采用指数平滑模型预测效果较好,其R2=0.856,其实际值与预测值相吻合程度高,说明采用指数平滑模型能很好的预测麻疹。结论指数平滑模型法适用于各种疾病时间序列分析,但对不同疾病的预测效果存在差异,当疾病发病数据趋于平稳时预测效果较好。
Objective To explore the application of exponential smoothing model in predicting the incidence of measles. Methods The national disease reporting management system was used to collect the monthly incidence of measles cases from 2004 to 2012 in medical institutions. Eviews6.0 software was used to establish an exponential smoothing model for the monthly incidence of influenza and measles. Results It is suggested that exponential smoothing model is better predicted by model diagnostics, R2 = 0.856. The actual value is in good agreement with the predicted value, which shows that exponential smoothing model can predict measles well. Conclusion Exponential smoothing model is suitable for time series analysis of various diseases, but there are differences in predicting the effect of different diseases. When the incidence of disease is stable, the predicting effect is better.