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一、年底新豆销售和大豆进口数量增加对市场形成压力。年底国内大豆进口数量仍将保持较高水平。有关方面预计今年12月份国内港口进口大豆到港量为170万-180万吨。在进口大豆陆续到港的过程中,铁道部决定利用两个月的时间集中向外调运东北粮食,大豆的上市量将会明显增加,东北地区的国产大豆也将进入季节性销售高峰期,这样进口和国产大豆在同一时间段进入流通领域,必将对国内市场形成巨大的供应压力。二、高价位海运费对大豆价格形成支撑。造成运力紧张及运价上涨有两方面原因,一是在目前谷物出口的高峰季节,中国沿海一带对铁矿石和煤炭的需求不断增长,拉动运价上涨;二是中国的大豆进口量较大。另外,全球港口的船舶都需要装卸货物,从而使得港口滞期问题突显出来,使散装干货船舶的运营能力明显下降。国际海运费率的强劲上扬将大幅提高大豆进出口的成本,我国进口大豆到岸价的上升会对国内价格形成支撑。
First, the end of the new soybean sales and soybean imports increased the pressure on the market. By the end of the year, the domestic soybean import volume will remain at a high level. The relevant parties are expected in December this year, the domestic port of imports of soybeans to 1.7 million -1.8 million tons. In the course of importing soybeans one after another to Hong Kong, the Ministry of Railways decided to use two months to concentrate the outward transportation of northeast foodstuffs. The listing amount of soybeans will increase significantly. The domestic soybean in the northeast will also enter the peak season of seasonal sales. Imported and domestically produced soybeans enter the circulation field at the same time, which will surely create a huge supply pressure on the domestic market. Second, high-cost sea freight support for the formation of soybean prices. Tension in transport capacity and rising freight rates have two major reasons. First, at the current peak cereal export season, the demand for iron ore and coal in China’s coastal areas continues to grow, driving up freight rates. Second, China imports a large amount of soybeans. In addition, ships at global ports need to be loaded and unloaded, thus prompting the port demystification issue and significantly reducing the operating capacity of bulk dry cargo vessels. The strong rise in international shipping rates will substantially increase the cost of soybean imports and exports. The rise of China’s CIF soybean imports will support domestic prices.