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为指导伊犁河流域水资源的合理开发利用、流域梯级水电站群联合优化调度以及洪水资源利用,揭示伊犁河源流的径流演变规律,以哈什河为例,依据托海水文站1958—2015年近58年的天然径流实测数据,采用累积距平法、Mann-Kendall相关检验法、功率谱分析和小波分析法研究天然径流量的趋势走向、突变特性及周期性,结果表明:1近58年来年径流量总体呈现略微增长的趋势;2近58年来年径流量在1968—1974和1998—2010年为径流量增大的阶段,1975—1997年和2011—2014为径流量减少阶段;3年径流量在1968和2014年发生由少到多的突变;在1980年发生由多到少的突变;(4)年径流量存在3类周期变化:3-5年、9-12年、17-19年;主周期为4年、11年和19年。
In order to guide the rational development and utilization of water resources in Yili River Basin, the joint optimization and dispatching of cascade hydropower stations and the utilization of flood resources, the law of runoff evolution of Yili River source was revealed. Taking Hushi River as an example, 58 years of natural runoff measured data, the use of cumulative anomalies, Mann-Kendall correlation test, power spectrum analysis and wavelet analysis of natural runoff trends, mutation characteristics and periodicity, the results show that: 1 nearly 58 years In the recent 58 years, the annual runoff increased in the runoff in 1968-1974 and 1998-2010, while the runoff decreased in 1975-1997 and 2011-2014. The annual runoff of 3 years There was a less frequent mutation in 1968 and 2014; more and less mutations occurred in 1980; (4) There were 3 types of annual variations in annual runoff: 3-5 years, 9-12 years, 17-19 Year; the main cycle is 4 years, 11 years and 19 years.