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随着“西部大开发”战略的深入实施,西部地区已经成为我国经济发展最快的区域,然而西部经济的快速增长已经造成了碳排放量的大幅增加,严重影响了我国节能减排目标的实现。为了有效地控制西部地区碳排放量的急速增加,我们必须全面分析引致西部碳排放量增加的主要因素。本文在已有研究的基础上,从西部地区产业转型和消费升级的视角出发,利用1991年-2009年的省际面板数据对西部地区的经济发展模式与碳排放量增长之间的相关关系及其传导机制进行了实证检验。检验结果表明:自进入20世纪90年代以来,西部地区的经济发展与碳排放量增长之间存在显著的正相关关系,而且在西部大开发战略实施以后,这种关系更加显著。同时,检验还发现西部地区的消费升级和产业转型对碳排放量增加产生重要影响,其中三次产业间结构变动的影响系数达到16.4,二次产业内部采掘业和重工业比重上升的影响系数达到14.3,人均居住支出和人均交通支出的影响系数也分别达到5.6和6.5,而传统的人口规模、收入规模则对西部地区碳排放量的影响微弱,影响系数仅为0.73和0.86。因此在制定西部地区“十二五”节能减排战略时,需要更多的从消费升级和产业转型的视角出发。
With the in-depth implementation of the “Western Development” strategy, the western region has become the fastest-growing region in our country. However, the rapid economic growth in the western region has caused a substantial increase in carbon emissions and seriously affected China’s energy-saving emission reduction targets The realization. In order to effectively control the rapid increase of carbon emissions in the western region, we must thoroughly analyze the major factors that have caused the increase of carbon emissions in the western region. Based on the existing research and from the perspective of industrial restructuring and consumption upgrading in the western region, this paper makes use of the inter-provincial panel data from 1991 to 2009 to analyze the correlation between the economic development mode in the western region and the growth of carbon emissions. Its conduction mechanism was tested empirically. The test results show that since the 1990s, there has been a significant positive correlation between the economic development and the growth of carbon emissions in the western region, and the relationship has become even more remarkable after the implementation of the strategy of large-scale development of the western region. At the same time, the test also found that the consumption upgrading and industrial restructuring in the western region have a significant impact on the increase of carbon emissions. Among them, the coefficient of influence of the structural changes among the three industries reaches 16.4, and the influence coefficient of the increase of the extractive industries and heavy industries within the secondary industry reaches 14.3. The coefficient of influence of per capita living expenditure and per capita transport expenditure reached 5.6 and 6.5, respectively. However, the traditional population scale and income scale had a weak influence on the carbon emissions in the western region, with only 0.73 and 0.86 impact coefficients. Therefore, when formulating the “Twelfth Five-year” energy saving and emission reduction strategy in the western region, we need more perspectives from the perspective of consumption upgrading and industrial restructuring.