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2009年一二级债券市场可以概括为悲喜两重天。一级市场方面,债券市场的融资功能持续增强;政府债券发行跌宕起伏;信用债券增速快、创新多;二级市场方面,市场整体走弱,偶有反弹;各类券种指数全线下跌,短期融资券防御性较强;收益率曲线中端带领曲线全面上移;信用利差呈U型走势。2010年债券市场面临的最大风险是货币政策的调整,包括加息以及央票发行利率的上调,市场虽已对此有所预期,但对后续调整的担忧仍有可能对市场产生猛烈冲击。2010年债券净供给规模虽然有所下降,但供需处于弱平衡状态,不平衡是大概率事件。2010年,收益率曲线或将平坦化上移,信用利差有望收窄,机会主要观察四个因素,消费、出口、外汇占款以及信贷投放模式。
In 2009, the tier one and tier two bond markets can be summed up as a tragedy. As for the primary market, the financing function of the bond market continued to increase; the issuance of government bonds was ups and downs; the growth of credit bonds was faster and more innovative; in the secondary market, the market as a whole weakened and occasionally rebounded; all kinds of bond indices fell across the board, Short-term financing bills are more defensive; the mid-end of the yield curve shifts fully upward; the credit spread is U-shaped. The biggest risks facing the bond market in 2010 are the adjustment of monetary policy, including the rate hike and the increase of the central bank’s issuing interest rate. Although the market has anticipated this issue, concerns about subsequent adjustment may still have a violent impact on the market. Although the net bond supply declined in 2010, supply and demand were in a state of weak balance and imbalance was a big probability event. In 2010, the yield curve will either flatten upwards and the credit spreads are expected to narrow. The opportunities mainly focus on four factors: consumption, exports, foreign exchange and credit allocation.