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根据预警思想选择一系列能全面及时地反映铁路运输市场景气状况的预警指标,利用灰色系统理论数学预测法和派生德尔菲专家预测法综合预测出下季度铁路运输预警指标的值,用景气信号方法对预测值进行分析并显示出该季度的预警信号,以此评价铁路运输市场景气运行的冷热程度和正常与否。
According to the early warning thought, a series of early-warning indicators that can reflect the economic conditions of the railway transportation market in a comprehensive and timely manner are selected. The gray system theory mathematical forecasting method and Derived Delphi expert forecasting method are used to predict the value of the early warning indicators of railway transportation in the next quarter, The forecast value analysis and display of the quarter of the warning signal, in order to assess the extent and normality of the hot and cold run of the railway transport market economy.