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通过使用DEA-Malmquist方法与Kumbhakar-Sun方法(KSM),测算中国2543个市区县(含港澳台)在2007~2010年的TFP变动情况,认为中国各市区县的TFP在考察期内以年均6.2%(DEA-Malmquist)和8.2%(KSM)的速度下降。在东部地区,呈现TFP增长态势的大多是城市市区,分布上非常零散;西部地区的TFP连片增长地带大多地广人稀。尽管市区县级数据存在潜在的质量问题,TFP变动与固定资本存量变动之间的负相关性仍然非常明显,中国经济增长模式面临严峻挑战。
By using the DEA-Malmquist method and the Kumbhakar-Sun method (KSM), the TFP changes in 2543 metropolitan counties (including Hong Kong, Maucao, and Taiwan) from 2007 to 2010 in China were estimated. Both of the 6.2% (DEA-Malmquist) and 8.2% (KSM) rate of decline. In the eastern region, most of the TFP growth trends are urban areas, and the distribution is very fragmented. The TFP contiguous growth in the western region is mostly sparsely populated. Despite potential quality problems at county-level data, the negative correlation between changes in TFP and changes in fixed capital stock remains significant. China’s economic growth model is facing severe challenges.