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为准确、有效地预测评价岩溶塌陷的危险性,运用集对分析原理建立岩溶塌陷危险性预测模型。选择岩性、岩溶发育程度、地形地貌、地质构造、土层厚度、土层岩性、地下水位距基岩面距离、地下水位变幅、地下水径流强度、地表水入渗、人工抽水强度和其他人类工程活动12个指标为岩溶塌陷主要影响因素,并将塌陷危险性划分为5个等级,用定量或定性的方法对指标进行赋值,构建其分级标准。运用集对分析方法,将影响因素实测值分别与5个危险性等级评价标准组成集对,计算其联系度,最后根据联系数的排序结果,判定岩溶塌陷危险性等级。利用该方法对贵州定扒地区岩溶塌陷危险性进行预测,结果表明,该模型评价结果与实际情况相符。
In order to predict the risk of karst collapse accurately and effectively, set up the prediction model of karst collapse risk by using set pair analysis principle. Select lithology, development degree of karst, topography, geologic structure, thickness of soil layer, lithology of soil layer, distance between groundwater level and bedrock surface, amplitude of groundwater level, groundwater runoff intensity, surface water infiltration, artificial pumping strength and others The 12 indexes of human engineering activities are the main influencing factors of karst collapse, and the collapse risk is divided into five levels, and the indexes are assigned by quantitative or qualitative methods, and their grading standards are established. Using set pair analysis method, the measured values of influencing factors are respectively grouped with five risk grade evaluation standards to calculate the degree of association. Finally, the rank of karst collapse risk is determined according to the ranking results of the number of links. This method is used to predict the risk of karst collapse in Dingpao area, Guizhou Province. The results show that the model evaluation results are consistent with the actual situation.