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本文从对外贸易与经济增长两者的理论关系人手,采用2011年国际比较(ICP)的GDP数据与增加值贸易核算方法下的对外贸易数据,对欧盟27国截面数据建立空间自回归模型(SAR),研究分析对外贸易与经济增长在新形势下的内在联系。实证结果表明:欧盟27国的国内生产总值存在着较强的空间相互依赖性;出口增加值贸易对本国经济具有迟滞作用,而进口增加值贸易对本国经济具有拉动作用,并且拉动的作用要远远强于迟滞的作用。最后根据实证分析结果提出针对中国的政策建议。
In this paper, based on the theoretical relationship between foreign trade and economic growth, using the data of international trade in 2011 (ICP) and foreign trade data of value added trade accounting, the spatial autoregressive model (SAR ), Study and analyze the internal relations between foreign trade and economic growth in the new situation. The empirical results show that there is a strong spatial interdependence between the GDP of the EU27 and that of the EU27. The trade in value-added exports has a hysteresis effect on the domestic economy, while the imports-value-added trade has a stimulating effect on the domestic economy. Much better than hysteresis. Finally, according to the results of empirical analysis put forward policy recommendations for China.