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本刊讯中国银行2014年12月2日在北京发布《2015年经济金融展望报告》,报告指出,目前经济处于减速和“换档”期:国内要素成本上升,资源环境压力增大,比较优势衰减,产能过剩突出,杠杆率高企,企业盈利能力下降,经济金融风险不断集聚和增大。中国银行国际金融研究所预计,未来继续降息和降准的可能性都较大;2015年很可能是中国本轮经济下行的阶段性低点或谷底,2015年,中国宏观经济政策趋于宽松。财政政策将更加积极,赤字规模可能有所扩大。
The Bank of China released its “2015 Economic and Financial Outlook Report” in Beijing on December 2, 2014. The report pointed out that the current economic slowdown and “shift” period: the domestic factor cost increases, the pressure on resources and environment increases, Comparative advantage declines, overcapacity is prominent, leverage is high, corporate profitability declines, and economic and financial risks are continuously gathering and increasing. The Institute for International Finance of Bank of China predicts that there will be a high possibility of further interest rate cuts and RRR cuts in the future. 2015 is likely to be the stage lows or troughs of the current round of economic downturn in China. In 2015, China’s macroeconomic policies tend to be relaxed. Fiscal policy will be more positive and the scale of the deficit may be enlarged.