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基于1952-2005年全国的时间序列数据,对我国的GDP与进出口的有关数据变量进行协整计量分析,并根据格兰杰(Granger)定理运用EG两步法建立三者间的误差修正模型,分析了对外贸易的两个方面:出口和进口对经济增长的长期和短期效应。文章得到以下结果:长期内,出口和进口与国内生产总值之间存在稳定的均衡关系,且出口较之进口对经济增长的促进作用强,说明了我国的长期经济增长是出口导向型的;短期内,进口和出口都对经济增长起到了极大的促进作用。
Based on the time series data of China from 1952 to 2005, the co-integration and econometric analysis of China’s GDP, import and export data was conducted. According to Granger’s theorem, the two-step EG method was used to establish the error correction model , Analyzes two aspects of foreign trade: the long-term and short-term effects of exports and imports on economic growth. The article obtains the following results: In the long term, there is a stable and balanced relationship between exports and imports and GDP, and the role of exports in promoting economic growth is stronger than that of imports. This shows that our long-term economic growth is export-oriented. In the short term, both import and export have greatly boosted economic growth.