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通过分析经验贝叶斯评估方法的原理,提出前后观测效果评估的流程和步骤,并以实例评估效果,验证了经验贝叶斯法在效果评估中的有效性。根据线路的事故率、路段长度、交通量等基础数据,采用经验贝叶斯法,参照同类型对象的事故信息,估算评估地点未安装设施时的后期期望事故率,与后期观测事故率相比,得到显著性,从而评估设施的安全效果。根据安全效果与其标准误差的比值,确定设施效果的可信度。以嵊义线为例的设施效果评估结果表明,所选安全设施方案可以减少51.5%的事故率,且这个结果具有95%可信度的统计显著性。实例应用验证了经验贝叶斯方法在设施安全效果评估中的有效性。
By analyzing the principle of empirical Bayesian assessment method, the process and steps of the assessment of the observed effect before and after were put forward, and the effectiveness of the empirical Bayesian method in the assessment of the effect was verified by the case evaluation. According to the accident rate, section length and traffic volume of the line, empirical Bayesian method is used to estimate the late expected accident rate at the time of uninstalled facilities in the assessment site by referring to the accident information of the same type of object. Compared with the late observed accident rate , Was significant, to assess the safety of facilities. According to the ratio of the safety effect to its standard error, the credibility of the facility effect is determined. The results of the assessment of the facility effectiveness, exemplified by the Sheng-Sheng Line, show that the selected safety program solution can reduce the accident rate by 51.5% and this result has statistical significance of 95% confidence. The example application verifies the effectiveness of empirical Bayesian method in the assessment of facility safety effectiveness.