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工程项目融资前的财务风险评估是项目风险管理的重要组成部分。针对某企业拟建的工业生产项目,进行了项目融资前全部投资现金流量风险评估,分别采用了历史数据推定法、德尔菲法和主观概率法等确定输入变量概率分布。通过运用CrystalBall软件,引入蒙特卡罗模拟法,得出该项目的财务净现值(FNPV)概率分布、净现值的百分位数及风险度,从而为项目投资提供风险决策依据。
The financial risk assessment before project financing is an important part of project risk management. Aiming at the industrial production project proposed by an enterprise, the risk assessment of total investment cash flow before project financing is carried out. The historical data estimation method, Delphi method and subjective probability method are respectively used to determine the probability distribution of input variables. Through the use of CrystalBall software, the introduction of Monte Carlo simulation method, the project’s financial net present value (FNPV) probability distribution, the percentile of net present value and risk, thus providing risk decision basis for project investment.