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本文认为对科学技术的未来作预测性思考既是可能的也是必要的,尽管这样做有其明显的困难和局限性。以往,科学家对科学技术中的某些趋势和重大理论方案已成功地作过评价,发现了一些新出现的范式,找到了一些进步的障碍,承认有些实验工具和技术能有效地由一个研究领域转移到另一个研究领域。作者在讨论要求机构变更和学科变革的两种主要趋势以前,对一些在不久将来可能改变科学知识范围的“重大事件”、新范式和技术新突破作了详尽论述。
This paper argues that it is both possible and necessary to make predictive thinking about the future of science and technology, although there are obvious difficulties and limitations in doing so. In the past, scientists have successfully evaluated some trends and major theoretical programs in science and technology, found some new paradigms, found some obstacles to progress, and acknowledged that some of the experimental tools and technologies can be effectively used by one research area Move to another area of research. Before discussing the two major trends that call for institutional change and discipline change, the authors give a detailed account of some of the “major events,” new paradigms and new technological breakthroughs that may change the scope of scientific knowledge in the near future.