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本文在我们提出的模糊随机振动和模糊动力可靠性分析的基础上,提出了一种抗震结构震害预测与损失估计的实际可行的方法。此方法考虑了预测地震烈度的模糊随机性、地震地面运动的随机过程性,结构震害等级的模糊性和结构在强震作用下的弹塑性。用此方法可以较好地预测抗震结构在使用期限内的失效概率和震害损失,从而为结构以可靠性为主要约束或以“结构造价和损失期望之和最小”为目标的结构优化设计提供了基础。
Based on the reliability analysis of fuzzy random vibration and fuzzy dynamics proposed by us, this paper presents a practical and feasible method for earthquake damage prediction and loss estimation of seismic structures. This method considers the randomness of the prediction of earthquake intensity, the random process of earthquake ground motion, the ambiguity of structural damage level, and the elasto-plasticity of structures under strong earthquakes. This method can better predict the failure probability and seismic damage loss of the earthquake-resistant structures during their service life, and provide structural optimization designs with the reliability as the main constraint or the “minimum sum of structural cost and loss expectations” as the goal. The foundation.