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目的初步建立并评估一个结肠癌术后复发转移的风险预测模型。方法回顾分析2009年6月至2013年6月间收治的240例结肠癌患者临床资料,通过Logistic回归分析建立模型,受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线评估模型。结果模型公式为:Ln[p/(1-P)]=3.63×淋巴结转移+2.64×B期+3.20×C期-2.63。模型受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线下面积为0.92,模型风险预测值为0.68。结论该模型能在一定程度上预测结肠癌根治术后复发转移风险。
Objective To establish and evaluate a risk prediction model of postoperative recurrence and metastasis of colon cancer. Methods The clinical data of 240 patients with colon cancer who were treated between June 2009 and June 2013 were retrospectively analyzed. Logistic regression analysis was used to establish the model of ROC curve evaluation. Results The model formula is: Ln [p / (1-P)] = 3.63 × lymph node metastasis + 2.64 × B period + 3.20 × C period -2.63. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve for the model subjects was 0.92 and the model risk prediction was 0.68. Conclusion This model can predict the risk of recurrence and metastasis of radical resection of colon cancer to a certain extent.