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核能技术的最新进展，使成熟的热中子转化堆更接近于可能由其本身承担近增殖甚至增殖堆的任务。例如，据美国报导，轻水堆内采用铀－２３３／钍循环可望获得增殖比ＢＲ＝１．０，在稠密栅内采用钚／铀－２３８循环也有可能获得增殖比 ＢＲ≈１．０８，估计至少可以作为“近增殖堆”运行。因此，原来以核燃料的转化与增殖两类堆型为基础的核能战略，将来可能过渡到以考虑不同的“能源取代率”作为重要因素的新战略；例如核能体系可能由第一代的低温堆与第二代的高温堆所组成，以适应更多领域内的能源需要。本文提出并初步分析了这种考虑“能源取代率”概念进行核能战略分析的基本要素；并认为原已具备高温、多用途与安全性好等特点的高温气冷堆，在解决了远程核能传输与水的热裂解制氢等先进工艺的配合下，若在经济成本方面经过改进，将具有较高的能源取代率，从而可能在未来的核能系统内占据重要地位。
Recent advances in nuclear energy technology have brought mature thermal neutron conversion reactors closer to the task of assuming their own near-proliferation or even breeder reactor. For example, it is reported from the United States that a BR multiplication ratio of BR = 1.0 is expected for a UW-233 / Thorium cycle in a light water reactor and a BR = 1.08 for a plutonium / U-238 cycle in a dense grid. Estimated to be at least as a “near breeder reactor” operation. Therefore, the original nuclear strategy based on the two types of conversion of nuclear fuel and proliferation may in the future move to a new strategy that considers different “energy replacement rates” as an important factor. For example, the nuclear energy system may be replaced by the first generation of low-temperature reactor With the second generation of high temperature reactor composition to meet more energy needs in the field. This paper puts forward and preliminary analyzes the basic elements of this nuclear energy strategy considering the concept of “energy substitution rate”; and considers that the HTGR with the characteristics of high temperature, multi-purpose and safety is the key to solve the problem of remote nuclear energy transmission In cooperation with advanced processes such as hydrogen pyrolysis of water, improvements in economic costs will have a high energy substitution rate and may therefore play an important role in the future nuclear energy system.