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多年来,我国货币市场出现货币供应量与反映商品市场价格变化的CPI仅呈现弱相关系,货币平均增速也明显大于CPI通胀率的平均涨幅与GDP平均增速之和的现象,被学界称为“货币超发之谜”。持续的货币超发之谜潜在地可能为一国带来资产泡沫风险,因此怎么解释该谜并提出合理的解决方案成为学界重要的研究课题之一。尽管1990年代以来学界提出多种不同假说,但截止目前仍没有一致结论,本文从新的角度对此给出解释,研究得出:货币超发所带来的以资产价格涨幅明显高于消费品价格为特征的“价格结构性上涨”机制可以用于解释“货币超发之谜”。
Over the years, the money supply in China’s currency market and the CPI, which reflects changes in commodity market prices, show only a weak correlation. The average money growth rate is also significantly greater than the sum of the average CPI inflation rate and the average GDP growth rate. For the “mystery of the money over ”. The continuing mystery of currency over-exploitation potentially poses a risk of asset bubbles for a country. Therefore, how to explain the mystery and propose a reasonable solution has become one of the important research topics in academia. Although many different hypotheses have been proposed by academics since the 1990s, so far there is no unanimous conclusion. This article gives an explanation from a new perspective. The study shows that when the excess of assets leads to a rise in asset prices significantly higher than that of consumer goods The characteristic “price structure up” mechanism can be used to explain “the mystery of over-currency”.