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针对城市抗震防灾系统具有多层次大规模的复杂性、动态性、自组织等特点,提出了基于系统动力学理论的城市抗震防灾能力评估模型。首先,回顾了城市抗震防灾相关研究的发展,总结了以往城市抗震防灾系统研究的不足;其次,给出了基于系统动力学的城市抗震防灾能力评估模型构建的框架,建立了运用系统动力学构建城市抗震防灾能力评估模型的指标体系,并分析了城市抗震防灾系统的动态性和因果反馈机制,构建了系统基本的因果关系图和流图;最后,以某城市区域脆弱性为例进行了验证分析。
In view of the multi-level complexity, dynamics and self-organization of earthquake-resistant and disaster-prevention system in city, a model to evaluate urban earthquake disaster-prevention capability based on system dynamics is proposed. First of all, the author reviews the development of urban earthquake-resistant and disaster-prevention research, sums up the shortcomings of past urban earthquake-resistant and disaster-prevention system research. Secondly, this paper gives the framework of urban earthquake-disaster and disaster-prevention capability assessment model based on system dynamics, Kinematics to build an index system of urban earthquake disaster prevention capability assessment model, and analyze the dynamic and causal feedback mechanism of urban earthquake disaster prevention system, and build the system’s basic causal relationship diagram and flow chart; Finally, taking a city regional vulnerability As an example to verify the analysis.