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1990年来上海市能源需求的快速增长使得上海市能源供需矛盾日益突出,进一步促进节能减排和加大新能源开发已成为上海市能源工作的重点。而评估未来能源需求数量及各产业部门的消费特点,以更加明确“开源节流”的目标和重点,无疑是其中不可或缺的重要内容。基于此,本文首先在详细对比分析1990~2008年上海市能源需求部门结构特点和经济社会发展趋势的基础上,提出了上海市未来更应把第三产业作为提高能效的首要对象的观点,这有别于目前大多认为第二产业是仍是重点的普遍观点。接下来,运用协整分析和部门分析结合的方法,建立分部门能源需求函数,对上海市2010~2020年进行了能源需求总量和部门需求数量进了预测研究,发现未来第三产业能源需求将从2018年始超过第二产业而成为上海市最大的能耗部门,而且第三产业的能源效率尤其是按可比价格计算的能源效率有待提高,这在一定程度上支撑了本文开始提出的观点。最后,针对预测研究结果提出了相应的政策建议。
The rapid growth of energy demand in Shanghai in 1990 made the energy supply and demand in Shanghai increasingly prominent. To further promote energy conservation and emission reduction and increase new energy development has become the focus of Shanghai’s energy work. Assessing the quantity of energy demand in the future and the consumption characteristics of various industrial sectors in order to clarify the goals and priorities of “increasing revenue and reducing expenditure” is undoubtedly an indispensable part of it. Based on this, based on a detailed comparison and analysis of the structural characteristics and economic and social development trends of Shanghai’s energy demand department from 1990 to 2008, this paper puts forward the view that Shanghai should regard tertiary industry as the primary target of improving energy efficiency in the future. Different from the current view that most secondary industries are still the key points. Next, using the method of cointegration analysis and departmental analysis, the sub-sector energy demand function is established. Based on the forecast of the total energy demand and the departmental demand quantity in Shanghai from 2010 to 2020, it is found that the energy demand of the tertiary industry in the future Which will overtake the secondary industry from 2018 to become the largest energy sector in Shanghai. And the energy efficiency of the tertiary industry, especially the energy efficiency at comparable prices, needs to be improved, which to some extent supports the viewpoint put forward at the beginning of this article. Finally, the corresponding policy recommendations are put forward based on the results of the forecast study.