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目的 :探索建立估计吸毒人群中 HIV感染情况的方法 ,为今后开展针对吸毒者的相关服务提供依据。方法 :以4个月为间隔 ,将吸毒者出入强制戒毒所登记的记录作为前后两次捕获资料来源。应用 Seber的调整公式 ,对湖南省洪江区吸毒者人数进行估计。采用当年在所监测的感染率推算感染人数。结果 :采用捕获 -再捕获方法估计总吸毒人数 10 6 9人(95 % CI:4 6 0 ,16 14 )。当年监测 HIV感染率为 8.8% ,推算该区吸毒者中 HIV感染人数为 94人 (95 % CI:4 0 ,14 2 )。结论 :捕获 -再捕获法可以满足对吸毒人数的估计。
OBJECTIVE: To explore ways to establish HIV infection among drug users and to provide basis for future related services to drug addicts. Methods: At 4-month intervals, records of drug addicts entering and ex-combing detoxification registries were used as two sources of data before and after capture. Using the adjustment formula of Seber, the number of drug addicts in Hongjiang District of Hunan Province was estimated. According to the current year to monitor the rate of infection estimated number of infections. Results: The total number of drug abusers was estimated to be 106 6 (95% CI: 460, 16 14) using the capture-recapture method. The prevalence of HIV infection in that year was 8.8%. It was estimated that there were 94 HIV-infected drug addicts in the area (95% CI: 40,142). Conclusion: The capture-recapture method can satisfy the estimation of drug addicts.