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钉螺是血吸虫唯一中间宿主,研究钉螺与孳生环境因子的空间关系对采取有效的查螺、灭螺措施有重要的科学和社会价值。以鄱阳湖恒湖农场茶叶港草洲为研究对象,应用证据权重法与确定性系数法合成模型研究植物南荻、苔草、藜蒿、土壤温度、土壤湿度、导电率、海拔高程7个证据因子与“钉螺出现与否”的空间关系。结果表明:研究区内一定范围内高程的增加易于钉螺孳生;钉螺在湿度相对较大(大于0.35%(m~3/m~3))的环境中分布较少;苔草丰度过大(高于4 368 cm~3/m2)过小(低于1 457 cm~3/m2)都不利于钉螺孳生;钉螺较易孳生在南荻丰度较大(高于2 745 cm~3/m2)的区域;电导率较高(高于0.07 m S/cm)区域钉螺较少;土壤温度在16~20℃范围利于钉螺孳生。在模型预测结果图中,占研究区总面积13.7%的极高易发区的较小范围内预测到82%的钉螺空间分布,评价曲线的曲线下面积高达88.7%,说明模型的预测成功率很高,表明该模型适合研究区域钉螺孳生与其影响因子之间的空间关系。
Oncomelania is the only intermediate host of schistosomiasis. It is of great scientific and social value to study the spatial relationship between snail and breeding environment factors to take effective measures to snail and eliminate snails. Taking the tea plantation of Chagang in Henghu Farm of Poyang Lake as the research object, the evidence weight method and deterministic coefficient method were used to study the seven evidence factors such as Nandi, Carex, Artemisia, soil temperature, soil moisture, electrical conductivity and altitude, “Snails appear or not ” spatial relationship. The results showed that the increase of elevations within a certain range in the study area was easy to breed snails; snails were less distributed in the environment with relative humidity greater than 0.35% (m ~ 3 / m ~ 3); the abundance of Carex Smaller ones (less than 1,467 cm ~ 3 / m2) were not conducive to snail breeding. Snails were more likely to breed in larger abundance (more than 2,745 cm ~ 3 / m2) The area with higher conductivity (higher than 0.07 m S / cm) had less oncomelania and soil temperature ranged from 16 ℃ to 20 ℃. In the prediction model of the model, the space distribution of snails was predicted to be 82% in a relatively small area with a high risk area of 13.7% of the total area of the study area, and the area under the curve of the evaluation curve was as high as 88.7%, indicating a high prediction success rate of the model , Indicating that the model is suitable for studying the spatial relationship between snail breeding and its influencing factors.