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为深入探讨影响山区高速公路交通死亡事故发生的显著性因素,基于昌金和泰赣2条典型的南方山区高速公路共613起一般事故数据,运用二元Logistic回归模型,采用虚拟变量形式,对28个可能的影响因素进行检验,并根据发生比的概念,对模型的参数估计进行解释。结果表明:不良天气、下坡路段、弯坡组合路段、多车碰撞、超速、未保持安全车距、车辆安全状况差等7项因素对死亡事故的发生有显著促进作用,而撞固定物、刮擦事故和正确使用安全带能显著减小死亡事故的发生概率。
In order to further explore the significant factors that affect the traffic fatalities in mountainous expressways, based on 613 general accident data from 2 typical southern mountainous expressways in Changjin and Taihe, the binary logistic regression model and the dummy variables 28 possible influencing factors were tested, and according to the concept of occurrence ratio, the parameter estimation of the model was explained. The results showed that seven factors, such as bad weather, downhill section, combination of curved slope and section, multi-car collision, speeding, failure to maintain safe distance and poor vehicle safety, significantly contributed to the occurrence of fatal accidents. Rubbing accidentally and using seat belts can significantly reduce the probability of a fatal accident.