论文部分内容阅读
为了探讨城市扩张、城镇化增速和经济增长三者间的作用与影响，文章选取1984～2013年的时间序列数据，利用协整检验、格兰杰因果检验和误差修正模型等方法，对它们之间的关系进行了动态分析。结果表明，我国城镇化发展速度没有明显滞后于经济增长的速度；城市扩张、城镇化增速与经济增长之间存在长期稳定的协整关系，但格兰杰因果关系在不同变量间存在差异。这说明我国土地利用效率不高，方式不合理，城镇化的规模效应、辐射效应、创新溢出效应等没能充分发挥作用。因此，有必要深化体制改革，推动“人的城镇化”的发展，加强城市土地的集约利用效率，促进产城融合，以实现我国经济的可持续发展。“,”To identify the relationship among urban expansion ,urbanization and economic growth ,the paper makes a dynamic analysis by selecting time series data from 1984 to 2013 in China and using the methods of ADF test ,Granger causality test and error correction model .It was found that the speed of urbanization does not significantly lag behind the speed of economic grow th ;there is a long term stable co‐integration relationship among urban expansion ,urbanization and economic grow th .But there are differences among different indexes in Grainger Granger causality test indicating some low efficiency of land utilization ,unreasonable methods ,in‐effective use ofscale effect ,radiation effect ;and innovation spillover effect of urbanization .T herefore ,it is nec‐essary to deepen system reform and promote the development of human urbanization ,strengthen theintensive utilization efficiency of city land and acceleratethe integrationofindustry and city development ,so as toachieve sustainable development of China’s economy .