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本文旨在分析目前呈碎片化的、仅覆盖55%的城镇职工和极少数农村人口的中国养老保险制度的改革方案。在简要回顾中国养老保险的历史后,我们列举了近期的一些改革建议并探讨了养老保险改革的原则,将重心放在降低缴费率以提高参与度和扩大覆盖面方面。由于中国人口正在迅速老龄化,我们阐释了向名义账户(NDC)制度的过渡,以调整养老保险制度规则,应对由于人口寿命不断增长引起的老年化风险。将积累的养老金权利转入名义账户,并开始应用基于NDC模式新指数化规则,不一定使中国的养老保险制度跨入一个无法预测的危险境地,相反,这将是一种有效的、值得期待的、能够让相关规则更加明确、通向一个更加统一的全国性保障制度的道路。在基于中国数据的模拟模型的帮助下,我们形成了一系列的养老保险改革方案并对其特点进行了评估。
The purpose of this article is to analyze the current fragmented reform plan for the Chinese pension insurance system, which covers only 55% of urban workers and a very small number of rural residents. After a brief review of the history of China’s pension insurance, we cite a few recent proposals for reform and explored the principles of pension reform, with a focus on lowering the contribution rate to increase participation and expand coverage. As the population in China is rapidly aging, we explain the transition to a system of nominal accounts (NDC) to adjust the rules of the pension system to address the risks of aging due to the increasing life expectancy of the population. Transferring accumulated pension entitlements to nominal accounts and beginning to apply new indexation rules based on the NDC model do not necessarily result in China’s pension system stepping into an unpredictable danger scenario. Instead, it will be a valid, Expectations that will make the rules clearer and lead to a more unified national security system. With the help of simulation models based on China data, we have developed a series of pension reform programs and evaluated their characteristics.