失业风险和预防性储蓄动机——中国城市的实证分析

• 作 者: 项智慧 吴玉双
• 机 构: 中央财经大学,
• 出 处: 商业文化(学术版)
• 发表日期: 2004年期
• 关键词: 预防性储蓄动机 失业风险 流动性资产 微观数据 理论模型 中国城市居民 预防性动机 生命周期 模型设定 计量结果

本文运用来自中国城市家庭的微观数据,对预防性储蓄理论进行实证研究。在已有的预防性储蓄实证研究中,以总量数据为基础的研究居多,运用微观数据的尚不多见。本文在永久收入假说和生命周期理论模型的基础上研究失业风险对家庭流动性资产持有的影响。我们发现,当失业风险增加时,中国城市居民倾向于持有更多的流动性强的资产,即预防性储蓄动机在中国城市确实存在,不过这种预防性动机并不强烈;而过去收入的波动并不能造成居民持有流动性资产的增加。

This article uses micro-data from urban Chinese households to conduct empirical research on the theory of preventative savings. Among the existing empirical studies on preventive saving, most of the studies based on the total amount of data are rare, and the use of micro-data is rare. Based on the theory of permanent income hypothesis and life cycle, this paper studies the impact of unemployment risk on the holding of household liquidity assets. We find that Chinese urban residents tend to hold more liquid assets when the risk of unemployment increases, that preventive saving motives do exist in Chinese cities, but this precautionary motivation is not strong; while past income Fluctuation does not result in an increase in liquid assets held by residents.