论文部分内容阅读
2017年新疆人民政府工作报告提出2017年将完成全社会固定资产投资1.5万亿元以上,同比增长50%。作为固定资产投资重要资金来源的银行信贷将增长多少成为社会各界关心的问题。本文针对新疆2017年固定资产投资可能增长50%这一突变情况,采用多元线性回归模型、VAR模型和面板模型等3种计量模型来预测新疆信贷增速。研究发现,3种模型的样本外预测精度均较为理想。结合模型预测结果和形势判断,本文更倾向于面板模型的预测结果:2017年新疆各项贷款新增1882亿元、增长12.4%。
The work report of the people’s government of Xinjiang in 2017 proposes that the fixed asset investment of the whole society will be 1.5 trillion yuan or more in 2017, an increase of 50% over the same period of last year. As the important source of funds for fixed assets investment, bank credit growth will become the concern of all walks of life. This article aims at the abrupt change of Xinjiang’s investment in fixed assets by 50% in 2017, using three models of multiple linear regression, VAR and panel to predict the growth of credit in Xinjiang. The study found that the accuracy of the three kinds of models are very good. Combined with the prediction of the model and the judgment of the situation, this article prefers to predict the panel model. In 2017, various loans in Xinjiang increased by 182.8 billion yuan, up by 12.4%.