论文部分内容阅读
针对传统的项目风险控制研究缺乏考虑风险传播影响的不足,首先,构建项目风险传播模型,提出风险网络和风险传播算法;其次,在工作包之间存在的确定性时序关系约束下,从工作包直接受到的风险作用点数和综合影响值的角度出发,同时考虑风险正向传播和逆向传播来建立基于风险累积传播概率矩阵的优化目标函数,并对解决该问题的遗传算法进行设计,实现对工作包耦合模块内部工作包执行顺序的优化排序,以降低风险传播强度;最后,用一个实例验证了该方法的可行性。
In view of the lack of consideration of traditional risk control in project, firstly, the project risk communication model is constructed and the risk network and risk propagation algorithm are proposed. Secondly, under the constraint of deterministic timing relationship between work packages, Directly from the point of view of the number of risk and comprehensive impact of the value of point of view, taking into account the risk of forward and reverse spread to establish a matrix of risk based on the cumulative probability matrix of the objective function optimization, and to solve the problem of genetic algorithms designed to achieve the work In order to reduce the intensity of risk communication, the optimization order of the execution sequence of the work package in the package coupling module is verified. Finally, an example is given to verify the feasibility of the method.