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本文使用中国2005-2010年月度数据,发现商品住宅实际价格对城镇居民消费倾向存在抑制作用,房价的“挤出效应”占据主导地位,而“财富效应”没有显现;对东、中、西部地区分别回归,发现抑制作用存在地区性差异,西部地区的作用力度最大、东部次之、中部最小;引入动态面板模型,发现前两期城镇居民消费倾向对当期存在正向影响,且房价对消费倾向的抑制作用相比静态面板模型减弱很多。
This paper uses the monthly data of China from 2005 to 2010 and finds that the actual prices of commodity houses have an inhibitory effect on the propensity of urban residents to consume. Housing prices dominate the “crowding-out effect” while “wealth effect” In the middle and western regions respectively, we found that there are some regional differences in the inhibitory effect. The western region has the greatest effect, followed by the eastern and central regions. By introducing the dynamic panel model, it is found that the urban residents’ propensity to consume in the first two periods has a positive impact on the current period The inhibition of the propensity to consume to house prices is much weaker than the static panel model.