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随着劳动人口数量逐渐下降和资本存量加速上升以及由此带来的要素相对丰裕度变化,中国经济的总供给结构将发生调整。本文基于1981~2011年的统计数据和超越对数GDP函数,估算了中国最终消费、资本形成、出口产品以及资本收入在总产出份额的决定因素,并在此基础上计算了劳动和资本的产出弹性、就业弹性及需求弹性。研究结果显示,当给定其他条件不变时,随着劳动力资源日益稀缺和资本存量增加,中国将生产更多投资品,减少消费品和出口品的生产。
With the gradual decline in the labor force population and the accelerating capital stock and the resulting relative abundance of factors, the overall supply structure of China’s economy will be adjusted. Based on the statistical data from 1981 to 2011 and the log GDP function, this paper estimates the determinants of China’s final consumption, capital formation, export products and capital income in the total output. Based on this, it calculates the labor and capital Output elasticity, employment elasticity and demand elasticity. The results show that China will produce more investment products and reduce the production of consumer goods and exports as the labor resources become scarcer and the capital stock increases, given the other conditions remain unchanged.