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采用2001年1月~2016年2月国际糖价和中国糖价月度数据,首先对国内外糖价波动特点进行比较分析;然后运用结构向量自回归(SVAR)模型研究了国际糖价波动对中国糖价的动态冲击效应。结果发现,国际糖价与中国糖价的走势基本一致,国内糖价及其波动幅度均明显高于国际糖价;国际糖价是中国糖价波动的重要原因,国际糖价冲击会对我国糖价波动产生持久的影响;国际糖价的冲击对中国糖价的变动短期内贡献较小,但长期贡献较大。
Using the monthly data of international sugar prices and Chinese sugar prices from January 2001 to February 2016, we firstly analyzed the characteristics of domestic and international sugar prices volatility. Then, using the vector-based autoregressive (SVAR) model, the impact of international sugar price volatility on China Dynamic impact of sugar prices. The results showed that the international sugar price and the trend of China’s sugar prices are basically the same, the domestic sugar price and its volatility were significantly higher than the international sugar price; international sugar price is an important reason for fluctuations in China’s sugar prices, international sugar price impact on China’s sugar Price fluctuations have a lasting impact; the impact of international sugar prices on short-term changes in China’s sugar price contribution is small, but long-term contribution.