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随着期货市场的不断发展完善,期货和现货水乳交融的现象越来越深刻,对期货价格和现货价格相关关系的研究也变得愈加重要。为此运用了相关性分析、ADF检验、协整检验、Granger因果检验和方差分解模型对2009年度天然橡胶期货市场和现货市场的橡胶价格进行了定量分析研究,发现在天胶市场中,期货价格对现货价格具有显著的引导作用。在此基础上,提出了相应的对策。
With the continuous development of the futures market, the integration of futures and spot goods has become more and more profound. Research on the correlation between futures prices and spot prices has also become increasingly important. Therefore, the correlation analysis, the ADF test, the cointegration test, the Granger causality test and the variance decomposition model were used to quantitatively study the rubber prices of the natural rubber futures market and the spot market for 2009, and found that in the natural rubber market, the futures price On the spot price has a significant guiding role. On this basis, put forward the corresponding countermeasures.