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本文基于广州市1987年-2010年的建成区面积和第二、三产业GDP的统计数据,应用协整分析、库兹涅茨曲线和“脱钩”理论对建成区面积扩张和经济发展之间的关系进行实证研究。结果表明两者之间存在长期协整关系,并得到两者之间的协整方程,通过Granger因果检验,发现两者之间不存在Granger因果关系。通过误差修正模型发现修正系数为负,符合误差修正机制。通过对建成区面积和第二、三产业GDP之关系的库兹涅茨曲线研究,结果表明两者的坐标曲线呈倒“U”型。进一步对建成区面积扩张和第二、三产业GDP进行总量脱钩研究,探究不同发展阶段城市扩张和经济发展的关系。
Based on the statistics of the built-up area and the secondary and tertiary industries of Guangzhou City from 1987 to 2010, this paper applies the cointegration analysis, the Kuznets Curve and the theory of “decoupling” to the expansion of the built-up area and the economic development The relationship between empirical research. The results show that there is a long-term cointegration relationship between the two and a cointegration equation between the two is obtained. According to the Granger causality test, there is no Granger causality between the two. The error correction model found that the correction coefficient is negative, in line with the error correction mechanism. Through the study of the Kuznets Curve of the relationship between the built-up area and the GDP of the second and the third industry, the results show that the coordinate curves of the two are inverted “U”. Further expand the area of ?? the built-up area and the total secondary and tertiary industries, the total amount of research to explore the different stages of urban expansion and economic development.