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随着经济自由化和国际化的趋势,发展中国家外部帐户的状况与宏观经济绩效之间的联系日益紧密,而各种经济现象也愈加纷繁复杂。各个宏观经济变量间的关系,在不同的经济发展战略下、不同的经济体制下、不同的经济阶段下、不同的经济波动时期下以及不同的国际环境下,都表现出不同的特征。尤为令人感到困惑的是,1997年部分东亚国家在多年来持续经济增长的情况下,经济和金融系统突然出现崩溃,名义汇率大幅度贬值,但与此同时,台湾、新加坡、香港和中国大陆却有效地抵御了这场危机。东亚国家的基本经济状况存在诸多相似之处,然而其实际经济绩效却有较大差异。在本文中,我们简要回顾一下九十年代以来东亚各国在外部帐户和宏观经济绩效方面的一些经验,并总结此次东亚危机的若干教训。我们主要的讨论对象是发生金融危机的五个国家(韩国、马来西亚、印度尼西亚、菲律宾和泰国,简称五国),中国以及台湾。
With the trend of economic liberalization and internationalization, the relationship between the external accounts of developing countries and macroeconomic performance has become increasingly close, and various economic phenomena have become increasingly complicated. The relationship among various macroeconomic variables shows different characteristics under different economic development strategies, under different economic systems, under different economic stages, under different economic fluctuations and under different international environments. What is even more puzzling is the sudden collapse of the economic and financial system and the significant devaluation of the nominal exchange rate in 1997 when some East Asian countries continued their economic growth. In the meantime, however, Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong and mainland China But effectively resist the crisis. There are many similarities in the basic economic conditions in East Asian countries, however, their actual economic performance is quite different. In this article, we briefly review some of the experiences of East Asian countries in external accounts and macroeconomic performance since the nineties and summarize a few lessons from this crisis in East Asia. Our main focus is on five countries (Korea, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand, the five countries) in the financial crisis, China and Taiwan.