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目的研究灰色动态模型GM(1,1)在河北省承德市中心血站血液制备数量变化趋势中的应用,探讨最佳无偿血液制备管理策略。方法将承德市中心血站2004年-2013年制备的RH阴性解冻红细胞(单位)、去白悬浮红细胞(单位)、冷沉淀凝血因子(单位)、普通冰冻血浆(单位)等4类血液品种数据资料,建立灰色系统GM(1,1)一阶微分方程预测模型。分析并预测2014年-2016年上述4类血液品种制备数量。结果 Y(t)一阶线性微分方程经拟合优度检验,精度均为优。可以很好地应用于血液制备量预测。从而得出2014年-2016年上述4类血液制备数量。结论承德市中心血站以上4类血液制备品种数量有持续上升的趋势。新型灰色系统一阶GM(1,1)常态下可以应用于维持血液最佳库存量,保证峰值与谷值之间的动态平衡,从而保证临床输血的供应。
Objective To study the application of the gray dynamic model GM (1,1) in the change of blood preparation quantity in blood stations in Chengde city of Hebei Province, and to explore the optimal management strategy of blood preparation. Methods The blood samples of four types of blood samples, including RH negative thawed erythrocytes (unit), debridement erythrocytes (unit), cryoprecipitated coagulation factor (unit), normal frozen plasma (unit) Data, the establishment of gray system GM (1,1) first-order differential equation prediction model. Analyze and predict the amount of preparation of the above four blood species in 2014-2016. Results The first-order linear differential equation of Y (t) has good accuracy after fitting goodness-of-fit test. Can be well applied to blood volume prediction. Thus come to 2014-2016 the above four types of blood preparation. Conclusions There are four types of blood preparations above the blood bank in Chengde City Center, the number of which has continued to increase. The new gray system first-order GM (1,1) can be used to maintain the best stock of blood and ensure the dynamic balance between peak and valley to ensure the supply of clinical blood transfusion.